By Jessica Murdock
Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed willingness to engage in ceasefire discussions with US President-elect Donald Trump regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine. However, Putin maintains firm territorial demands, including the retention of Crimea and parts of the Donbas region, which are crucial to his negotiation stance. Additionally, he insists that Ukraine abandon its NATO aspirations and accept certain territorial concessions as part of any potential peace agreement.
Putin’s Firm Territorial Demands
Despite the possibility of a ceasefire, sources close to the Kremlin reveal that Putin is unwilling to cede control over territories he considers part of Russia, especially Crimea and areas in eastern Ukraine such as Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Russia views these regions as integral to its strategic and national security interests, with some territories even under nuclear protection. Moscow has reportedly indicated a willingness to freeze the conflict along the existing front lines, but negotiations over specific territorial boundaries in the contested regions remain complicated.
Ukraine’s Neutrality Key to Negotiations
During his speech at the Valdai Discussion Club in November 2024, Putin emphasized the importance of Ukraine’s neutrality as a key factor in any potential peace deal. He argued that without Ukraine adopting a neutral stance, it would be difficult for Russia to maintain any good-neighbourly relations with its neighbor. For Putin, the presence of NATO in Ukraine would undermine Russia’s security and regional stability, thus his demand for Ukraine to remain non-aligned.
US-Ukraine Relations and Escalation Concerns
Recent developments, such as US President Joe Biden’s decision to supply Ukraine with ATACMS missiles, have added further complications to potential negotiations. The use of these advanced missiles in attacks on Russian territory has been described by Kremlin officials as a “dangerous escalation” and a hindrance to peace efforts. As a result, Putin’s stance remains clear: if no ceasefire is reached, Russia will continue its military actions in Ukraine.
Territorial Control and Prospects for Peace
Currently, Russia controls approximately 18% of Ukraine’s territory, including Crimea, large parts of the Donbas region, and significant portions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. While Russia might consider withdrawing from minor areas like Kharkiv and Mykolaiv, it insists on retaining the bulk of its occupied territories as part of a strategic and domestic victory.
Framework for Ceasefire Based on 2022 Draft Agreement
A potential ceasefire framework could be based on a nearly finalized agreement from the Istanbul talks in April 2022. This draft suggested that Ukraine could agree to neutrality in exchange for international security guarantees from UN Security Council permanent members, including Russia. However, achieving a long-term peace agreement remains unlikely due to the deep divides between Russian and Ukrainian demands. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has consistently insisted that Ukraine will not rest until all occupied territories, including Crimea, are fully restored.
